In Iowa, Clinton holds a commanding lead with an 82 percent chance of winning as opposed to 18 percent for challenger Bernie Sanders and less than one percent for Martin O’Malley.
The New Hampshire Primary is a bit closer with Clinton holding a 14-point lead over Sanders. In real numbers, Silver predicts a 57 percent chance for Clinton versus 43 percent for Sanders. O’Malley’s potential is nil with less than one percent.
In calculating his “Polls-Plus” predictions, Silver uses aggregate results from state and national polls along with endorsements for the candidates. For the New Hampshire primary, he used results from 47 polls. For Iowa, Silver factored in 54 polls.
Endorsements for the Democratic make a marked difference in calculations. Clinton has amassed 457 endorsements from Democratic Governors, U.S. Senators and U.S. House members – a number that may have risen in the last few days. In contrast, Sanders has two endorsements from House members and zero from his Senate colleagues. O’Malley has one endorsement.
In this “hidden primary,” Clinton is the overwhelming favorite among Democratic lawmakers. Says Silver:
Hillary Clinton had a commanding lead in endorsements even before launching her campaign — to an extent that’s unprecedented for a non-incumbent Democrat.
Nate Silver, the founder of the website FiveThirtyEight, gained indisputable status with his near-perfect predictions for the 2008 and 2012 presidential races.