Nate Silver Calls It For Clinton in IA and NH


CXUIKl6WkAEJkuTPoll results released by Nate Silver on 13 January predict Hillary Clinton will take both the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary, scheduled for February 1 and 9 respectively.

In Iowa, Clinton holds a commanding lead with an 82 percent chance of winning as opposed to 18 percent for challenger Bernie Sanders and less than one percent for Martin O’Malley.

The New Hampshire Primary is a bit closer with Clinton holding a 14-point lead over Sanders.  In real numbers, Silver predicts a 57 percent chance for Clinton versus 43 percent for Sanders. O’Malley’s potential is nil with less than one percent.

In calculating his “Polls-Plus” predictions, Silver uses aggregate results from state and national polls along with endorsements for the candidates.  For the New Hampshire primary, he used results from 47 polls.  For Iowa, Silver factored in 54 polls.

Endorsements for the Democratic make a marked difference in calculations. Clinton has amassed 457 endorsements from Democratic Governors, U.S. Senators and U.S. House members – a number that may have risen in the last few days. In contrast, Sanders has two endorsements from House members and zero from his Senate colleagues. O’Malley has one endorsement.

In this “hidden primary,” Clinton is the overwhelming favorite among Democratic lawmakers. Says Silver:

Hillary Clinton had a commanding lead in endorsements even before launching her campaign — to an extent that’s unprecedented for a non-incumbent Democrat.

Nate Silver, the founder of the website FiveThirtyEight, gained indisputable status with his near-perfect predictions for the 2008 and 2012 presidential races.

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8 thoughts on “Nate Silver Calls It For Clinton in IA and NH

  1. While I certainly understand the reasoning, I feel that the polls are not really capturing what is occurring underneath the surface. There’s a lot of anger out there, so the question for becomes who has the more motivated base? HRC or Bernie Sanders? I have to give the edge to Sanders. So an upset is possible.

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    • I’ve heard this comment often from Bernie and his supporters. I don’t think enthusiasm will overtake sound reasoning when it comes to the vote. Bernie is ill-prepared for this role and if nominated would assuredly give the White House to the GOP. People wil not let that happen.

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  2. Faulty information, and I’m an ardent Clinton supporter. He’s called NH for Sanders for awhile now. Here we are 9 days later, and he has Sanders with a 57% chance and Clinton with a 43% chance of winning.

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