Updated Primary Projections by Nate Silver


UPDATED 18 April 2016

Clinton projected to win New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania and California.

This will be continually updated with projections for the Democratic Presidential candidates as published on Nate Silver’s website.

Note that I’ll be using Silver’s Polls-Only Forecast. When that isn’t available, I’ll post his “Polling Averages” figures. These figures are not the same thing as polling numbers. Rather they are more like a gambler’s prediction of who will win somewhat similar to the predictions on CNN. Of course, Silver is using a more sophisticated formula than shaking the die as can be seen at his website. For more info on how Silver makes his primary predictions, visit Nate Silver’s Methodology.


April 19, 2016

NEW YORK DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

POLLING AVERAGES

April 17: Clinton 99% – Sanders 1%


April 26, 2016

CONNECTICUT DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

NO POLLING AVERAGES

 

MARYLAND DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

POLLING AVERAGES

April 17: Clinton 95% – Sanders 5%

February 28: Clinton 57% – Sanders 27.9%


PENNSYLVANIA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

POLLING AVERAGES

April 17: Clinton 87% – Sanders 13%

February 28: Clinton 48.6% – Sanders 31.3%


June 7, 2016

NEW JERSEY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

NO POLLING AVERAGES


CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

POLLING AVERAGES

April 17: Clinton 83% – Sanders 17

February 4: Clinton 46% – Sanders 32.7
February 4: Clinton 46.3% – Sanders 32.9
January 26: Clinton 46.4% – Sanders 32.9% – O’Malley 1.1%
January 26: Clinton 48.4% – Sanders 32.9% – O’Malley 1.2%
January 22: Clinton 46% – Sanders 33% – O’Malley 1.2%

CLOSED PRIMARIES/CAUCUSES


March 1, 2016

ALABAMA

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 77.8%  – Sanders 19.2%


ARKANSAS

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 66.3%  – Sanders 29.7%

February 28: Clinton 96% – Sanders 4%
February 17: Clinton 98% – Sanders 2%

GEORGIA

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 71.3%  – Sanders 28.2%

  • February 28: Clinton 99% – Sanders <1%
February 17: Clinton 60.1% – Sanders 27.3%

MASSACHUSETTS

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 50.1%  – Sanders 48.7%

February 28: Clinton 63% – Sanders 37%
February 17: Clinton 50.6% – Sanders 41.9%

OKLAHOMA

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 41.5%  Sanders 51.9%

February 28: Clinton 59% – Sanders 41%
February 17: Clinton 59% – Sanders 41%

TENNESSEE

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 66.1%  – Sanders 32.4%

February 28: Clinton 96% – Sanders 4%
February 17: Clinton 98% – Sanders 2%

TEXAS

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 64.3%  – Sanders 35.2%

February 28: Clinton 99% – Sanders 1%
February 17: Clinton 56.9% – Sanders 35.6%

VERMONT

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 13.6%  – Sanders 86.1%

February 28: Sanders 99% – Clinton 1%

COLORADO

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 40.3%  – Sanders 59.0%


OKLAHOMA

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 41.5%  – Sanders 51.9%


VIRGINIA

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 64.3%  – Sanders 35.2%

February 28: Clinton >99% – Sanders <1`%
February 17: Clinton 97% – Sanders 3%

March 5, 2016

KANSAS

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 32.3%  – Sanders 67.7%


LOUISIANA

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 71.1%  Sanders 23.2%


NEBRASKA

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 42.9%  – Sanders 57.1%


March 8, 2016

MICHIGAN

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 48.3%  – Sanders 49.8%

February 28: Clinton 95% – Sanders 5%
February 17: Clinton 89% – Sanders 11%
February 14: Clinton 64.2% – Sanders 33%

March 15, 2016

FLORIDA

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 64.4%  – Sanders 33.3%

February 28: Clinton >99% – Sanders <1%
February 14: Clinton 50% – Sanders 26%
February 4: Clinton 61.1% – Sanders 26%
January 26: Clinton 61.1% – Sanders 26% – O’Malley 3.6%
January 22: Clinton 60.7% – Sanders 26% – O’Malley 3.7%

NORTH CAROLINA

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 54.6%  – Sanders 40.8%

February 28: Clinton 93% – Sanders 7%
February 17: Clinton 93% – Sanders 7%
February 14: Clinton 64.9% – Sanders 34.8%
February 4: Clinton 56.8% – Sanders 27.6%
January 31: Clinton 56.8% – Sanders 27.5% – O’Malley 3.1%
January 28: Clinton 56.8% – Sanders 27.5% – O’Malley 3.1%
January 26: Clinton 59% – Sanders 27.2% – O’Malley 3.7%
January 22: Clinton 58.5% – Sanders 27.2% – O’Malley 3.7%

ILLINOIS

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 50.5%  – Sanders 48.7%

February 28: Clinton 99% – Sanders 1%

OHIO

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 56.5%  – Sanders 42.7%

February 28: Clinton 89% – Sanders 11%
February 14: Clinton 52.8% – Sanders 38.6%
February 4: Clinton 61.9% – Sanders 34.8%
January 31: Clinton 52.9% – Sanders 38.4% – O’Malley <1%
January 26: Clinton 52.9% – Sanders 38.4% – O’Malley <1%
January 26: Clinton 53% – Sanders 38.3% – O’Malley <1%
January 22: Clinton 52.5% – Sanders 38.3% – O’Malley <1%

April 5, 2016

WISCONSIN

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 43.1%  – Sanders 56.6%

February 28: Clinton 44.1% – Sanders 43.4%
February 4: Clinton 45.6% – Sanders 43.3%
January 29: Clinton 45.7% – Sanders 43.3% – O’Malley <1%

February 27, 2016

SOUTH CAROLINA

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 73.47%  – Sanders 25.97%

  • February 17: Clinton 99% – Sanders <1%
February 14: Clinton 71.7% – Sanders 25.2%
February 6: Clinton 93% – Sanders 7%
February 4: Clinton 95% – Sanders 5%
January 31: Clinton 94% – Sanders 6% – O’Malley <1%
January 29: Clinton 95% – Sanders 5% – O’Malley <1%
January 28: Clinton 97% – Sanders 3% – O’Malley <1%
January 26 Clinton 90% – Sanders 10% – O’Malley <1%
January 24: Clinton 90% – Sanders 10% – O’Malley <1%

 

January 22: Clinton 53.2% – Sanders 26.7% – O’Malley 2.1%

February 20, 2016

NEVADA

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Percentage): Clinton 53% – Sanders 47%

February 17: Clinton 57% – Sanders 43%
February 14: Clinton 49.1% – Sanders 48.6%
February 6: Clinton 50.3% – Sanders 28.1%
February 4: Clinton 50.4% – Sanders 28.4%
February 1: Clinton 50.4% – Sanders 28.4% – O’Malley <1%
January 31: Clinton 50.4% – Sanders 28.4% – O’Malley <1%
January 29: Clinton 50.6% – Sanders 28.4% – O’Malley <1%
January 26: Clinton 50.6% – Sanders 28.3% – O’Malley <1%
January 22: Clinton 50.2% – Sanders 28.2% – O’Malley <1%

February 9, 2016

NEW HAMPSHIRE

OFFICIAL RESULTS (By Votes): Clinton 95,226 – Sanders 151,954

February 3: Sanders 99% – Clinton 1% UPDATED 6:22 PM EST | Feb 4, 2016
February 3: Sanders 97% – Clinton 3%
February 1: Sanders 96% – Clinton 4% – O’Malley <1%
January 31: Sanders 93% – Clinton 7% – O’Malley <1%
January 26: Sanders 92% – Clinton 8% – O’Malley <1%
January 26: Sanders 90% – Clinton 10% – O’Malley <1%
January 24: Sanders 86% – Clinton 14% – O’Malley <1%
January 23: Sanders 84% – Clinton 16% – O’Malley <1%
January 22: Sanders 85% – Clinton 15% – O’Malley <1%

February 1, 2016

IOWA

OFFICIAL RESULTS (Delegate Equivalent): Clinton 49.9% – Sanders 49.5%

O’Malley Ends Campaign.

February 1: Clinton 72% – Sanders 28% – O’Malley <1%
January 31: Clinton 73% – Sanders 27% – O’Malley <1%
January 29: Clinton 65% – Sanders 35% – O’Malley <1%
January 28: Clinton 63% – Sanders 37% – O’Malley <1%
January 26: Clinton 67% – Sanders 33% – O’Malley <1%
January 24: Clinton 69% – Sanders 31% – O’Malley <1%
January 22 UPDATED: Clinton 72% – Sanders 28% – O’Malley <1%
January 22: Clinton 63% – Sanders 37% – O’Malley <1%

 

Advertisements

One thought on “Updated Primary Projections by Nate Silver

Comments are closed.