Implacable Math Equals a Clinton Nomination

HRC NYC

Ten states and the District of Colombia stand between the Democratic Convention in Philly and the likely nomination of Hillary Rodham Clinton as the party’s nominee for President.

Her opponent has an impossible task ahead as far as earning huge voting numbers and adding to his delegate count. There are 1,243 delegates still available but the math, as has been so often explained, creates a nearly insurmountable task. Clinton has a total of 2,165 delegates, including 520 super-delegates. She needs another 218 to gain the nomination.

If we spin a hypothetical and assume that Clinton’s 520 super-delegates remain faithful, then she could lose the popular vote in the May primaries, win fifty percent of the vote in California and claim the nomination.

On the other hand, her opponent has earned 1,357 delegates, including 39 super-delegates. Sanders needs 1,026 delegates to clinch the party’s nomination. If he won fifty percent of the vote and the corresponding delegates in ALL of the remaining primaries, he would still need another 557 delegates to reach the magic number of 2383.

Tad Devine hopes that Clinton’s super-delegates will flip to his man at the Convention. But even with this conservative hypothetical of a 50% winning streak, there are simply not enough super-delegates to steal from Clinton.

Add to this implacable math the recent polls showing a Clinton win in the state’s with the large delegate counts. She is expected to win Indiana, according to these five polls. And she is the favorite in California, according to these three polls. In Kentucky, Clinton has a 44-point lead over Sanders and, she’s the favorite in New Jersey,   Sanders is predicted to win West Virginia.

So for Bernie Sanders, the jig is up. For Hillary Clinton, the hard road begins again, as the GOP begins its onslaught.


The Remaining Democratic Primaries

May 3

  • INDIANA – 83 Delegates

May 10

  • WEST VIRGINIA – 29 Delegates

May 17

  • KENTUCKY – 55 Delegates
  • OREGON – 61 Delegates

June 7

  • CALIFORNIA – 475 Delegates
  • MONTANA – 21 Delegates
  • NEW JERSEY – 126 Delegates
  • NEW MEXICO – 34 Delegates
  • NORTH DAKOTA – 18 Delegates
  • SOUTH DAKOTA – 20 Delegates

June 14

  • WASHINGTON, DC – 20 Delegates

 

Advertisements