10-11-2016 – Days before the release of the video recording in which Donald Trump describes his sexual assaults in crude and demeaning language, and days before the “nastiest Presidential debate of all time,” and days before GOP leaders abandoned their nominee, Hillary Clinton had taken the lead in all five swing states.
It is important to set out these facts as a baseline for upcoming polls, which will show the direct impact of the second debate.
Aggregate polls compiled from October 6 and October 10 by 270 To Win show Clinton overtook her opponent in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
The Democratic nominee gained a durable 9-point lead in Pennsylvania, added to her favorability in Michigan and made an impressive turn around in Ohio, a state that had polled for Trump for the past three weeks.
The next set of polling data will show the effects of the second debate and the after-effects of Trump’s garbage-mouth bragging of his sexual assaults on women.
10 October Poll Results:
FLORIDA: Clinton 47% – Trump 44% |As of 10-10-16|Avg of 6 polls|
MICHIGAN: Clinton 47% – Trump 40% |As of 10-6-16|Avg of 3 polls|
NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 46% – Trump 43% |As of 10-10-16|Avg of 5 polls|
OHIO: Clinton 46% – Trump 45% |As of 10-9-16|Avg of 6 polls|
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 49% – Trump 40% |As of 10-9-16|Avg of 5 polls|
9-30-2016 – The newest set of Post Debate polls are out. The end result shows Clinton leading in four of the five swing states by one to five points.
Clinton gained a modest uptick in three of five swing states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio) and broke through the previous tie-breaker in North Carolina where she now leads by a single point.
Trump holds a fragile two-point lead in Ohio, losing two points in that state and North Carolina.
30 September Poll Results:
- FLORIDA: Clinton 46% – Trump 44% |As of 9-30-16|Avg of five polls|
- MICHIGAN: Clinton 46% – Trump 41% |As of 9-30-16|Avg of four polls|
- NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 44% – Trump 43% |As of 9-29-16|Avg of six polls|
- OHIO: Trump 44% – Clinton 42% |As of 9-26-16|Avg of five polls|
- PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 47% – Trump 43% |As of 9-29-16|Avg of five polls|
29 September FYI:
The NY Times lists 11 battleground states – Florida, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
The first Presidential debate serves as a pivot point in this election, not so much for diehard followers of the two candidates but for that body of the electorate that will swing the General Election.
I’ll track poll results in five swing states from now until 8 November, updating as results are available. My primary source will be 270 To Win, which provides aggregate results of two to five polls for each state.
States will include Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Any surprise leads by either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will also get a mention if it looks like more than a fluke. And, I’ll monitor Nate Silver’s 538 for any wide divergences in poll results.
27 September Poll Results:
– This first set of data are pre-Debate numbers to set a baseline –
- FLORIDA: Clinton 45% – Trump 43% |As of 9-26-16|Avg of five polls|
- MICHIGAN: Clinton 45% – Trump 41% |As of 9-15-16|Avg of four polls|
- NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 45% – Trump 45% |As of 9-26-16|Avg of six polls|
- OHIO: Trump 46% – Clinton 43% |As of 9-23-16|Avg of five polls|
- PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 46% – Trump 43% |As of 9-26-16|Avg of five polls|