Five to Lose: Post First Dem Debate

At least eight of the 20 contenders for the Democratic nomination will stand on stage for next months’ debate. However, as many as five may peel from that crowd if they fail to meet the DNC required criteria.

The top candidates include the following, based on flash polls by the group Indivisible, which measured impressions of 4500 viewers immediately after each debate. The percentage is the total favorability rating given by respondents.

  • Harris  65%
  • Warren 56%
  • Castro 15%
  • Buttigieg 15%
  • Booker 10%
  • Biden 7%
  • Sanders 7%
  • Klobuchar 6%

These eight will almost certainly appear onstage for the July 30-31 debates in Detroit. All had surpassed both DNC eligibility requirements.

All Dem candidates must meet one of two DNC qualifiers for the July debates: a polling requirement or a grassroots fundraising goal.

By July 16,  candidates will need to register 1% or more in three qualifying polls.

A cluster from the first debate are likely to appear in July. However, those with one percent rankings should be worried. This group includes:

  • De Blasio 3%
  • Gabbard 3%
  • Inslee 3%
  • Gillibrand 2%
  • O’Rourke 2%
  • Bennet 1%
  • Ryan 1%
  • Swalwell 1%
  • Williamson 1%
  • Yang 1%

As of 13 June, Tim Ryan had not met the fundraising requirement. He qualified for the first debate on polling alone. His poor showing last night could mean elimination if his poll numbers don’t improve and his fundraising tanks.

The same holds true for Michael Bennett and Eric Swalwell. Both qualified for the June debate based on poll numbers alone. Should their polling take a nosedive and they don’t meet the donor threshold, they won’t make the July debate stage.

The last two of the original 20 received no votes and their future presence in the debates is tenuous.

  • Hickenlooper 0%
  • Delaney 0%

Both John Delaney and John Hickenlooper qualified with the minimum 1% poll standing. However, neither reached the fundraising goal and their future debate status appears bleak.

In summary, these five have potentially lost their candidacy: Bennett, Delaney, Hickenlooper, Ryan and Swalwell.

These eight are assured a spot onstage in Detroit: Biden, Booker, Buttigieg, Castro, Harris, Klobuchar, Sanders and Warren.

This last grouping must up their game if they hope to survive through September when debate qualifiers become even tougher: De Blasio, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Inslee, O’Rourke, Williamson and Yang.

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