With three weeks until the 2016 General Election and three days till the final debate, Hillary Clinton is maintaining a lead in nearly every forecast model while her GOP opponent sees a continued slippage in his popularity.
The PollyVote Electoral College forecast assigns Clinton 347 votes, well over the 270 needed to secure the election. Of note is the recent classification of Florida as “Safe Democrat”.
This same site, defined as “evidence-based” polling, puts Clinton ahead in the two-party popular vote, 53.9% to her rival’s 46.1%, nearly an 8-point advantage.
A Washingon Post/ABC poll dated 13 October and released today gives Clinton a much slimmer, 4-point lead at 47-43%.
This poll also found that a significant number of Republicans believe their nominee engaged in unwanted sexual activity (68%), as a number of accusers have come forward following the release of the “Access Hollywood” tape. However, that does not shake their loyalty to the candidate. Fully 84% of Republicans and 60% of Independents indicate they will still vote for him. In addition, these voters don’t believe Trump when he says he’s innocent of accusations made against him.
The Post-ABC poll indicates that an overwhelming majority of likely voters doubt those denials, with 68 percent saying Trump probably has made unwanted sexual advances on women and 14 percent saying he probably has not. Almost half of Republicans think he has probably engaged in such behavior, while 22 percent say he has not, and the rest have no opinion.
Clinton fairs much better in a poll conducted by NBC/Wall Street Journal. In a four-way race, she earned a strong 11-point lead. When reduced to the majority party candidates, Clinton still topped Trump by 10-points.
Meanwhile, in a slightly dated forecast, the LA Times conceded the electoral vote to Hillary Clinton. In its October 14 issue, the Times named Arizona a toss-up state and counted 279 electoral votes for the Democrat versus 189 for the GOP contender, effectively forecasting a win for Clinton.
Real Clear Politics uniformly shows Clinton as the favorite in a number of General Election polls. It also presents state polls showing her as the preferred candidate in Florida (+4), Nevada (+6), Oregon (+10) and Virginia, where she has a hefty 15-point lead in a four-way race.
Lastly, Nate Silver, who has given such morose forecasts of a possible Trump win, has broken through his caution to declare Clinton has an 86.2% chance of winning with 339 electoral votes to Trump’s 198. Odds aside, Silver has yet to call Florida a “safe” state for the Democrats and resists the same with Nevada even though the Clinton vs. Trump odds are 74.4% vs. 25.6%.